I think the Tories will win, because as you said Mr Falafel, everyone is thinking 'God, Brown is rubbish chuck him out' with no thought to the replacement. I'm thinking about the replacement and I don't really feel all that groovy with any of the choices. I have no idea who in supplement to the Big Three will be in my area. If I (well my parents, the 2005 election was the year before I was eligble) recall correctly from last time, it was UKIP, the BNP and the Greens. They seem to be the standard in my area for local elections.
I had the unfortunancy last time I voted to be greeted by an old childhood friend, wearing UK flipflops and helping his mate canvas support for the BNP outside the portacabin. I let my Dad do the arguing because I was so angry I thought I would thump this lad. I also found out that a boy who 'has a crush' on me voted BNP in the local elections. Not that he has a chance against my long term relationship regardless of his political compass, but we are good friends and I knew he wasn't politically aware but was very disappointed that he had been so influenced the BNP. Lads his age seem to have been too influenced by their parents reading/watching right-wing rubbish. When I was 13, I thought the Daily Mail was a good paper. Thank JC I grew up and got a brain of my own, and then changed the brains of my parents in the process.
Anyway. A friend of mine, who was quite conservative (small c) once told me she had read that its beneficial for governments to alternate every election, as they can then spend the term sorting out the mess the other party got the country into. She was being serious...I just can't see how that would make sense. Nothing would ever get done, and they would just spend millions of pounds centralising/de-centralising power and the whatnot.
Sigh. I think I'll wait to see who is a candidate in our area. Hopefully at least one smaller party!