I think Brokeback Mountain is a lock-in for Best Picture and Best Director, but I don't think it will win in all the actor categories.
I'm really excited to see Amy Adams nominated for Best Supporting Actress. She got snubbed at the Golden Globes.
Felicity Huffman should win Best Actress, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman (not Heath Ledger) should win Best Actor.
Syriana deserves best screenplay, and Munich for adapted screenplay.
Since Terrence Howard is not going to win Best Actor, he should win Best Original Song, "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp".
Crash deserves to be shut out, but I don't think it will be, so I'll give it Best Film Editing.
Cinderella Man and Walk The Line were great movies, but I don't think they'll win anything.