Almost a quarter of Republicans think Obama 'may be the Antichrist' - Page 2 - VeggieBoards
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#31 Old 03-25-2010, 11:57 AM
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I don't know about where they were polled, but if the polling didn't occur in just one specific region then ~2000 is the minimum sample size to rule out statistical fluctuations in the majority of cases (greater than 99%). This can be determined by the equation: q / sqrt(n). As n, the sample size, increases the variability decreases rapidly. At approximately n=2000, the variability is sufficiently small.
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#32 Old 03-25-2010, 12:22 PM
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The healthcare issue is one of the biggest philosophical differences between the two parties, and it has shown a lot of ugly and a lot of stupidity. Not cool.





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The House Democratic leader, Steny Hoyer of Maryland, said that at least 10 House members were concerned for their personal safety, and a number reported their offices had been vandalised.



In one incident, authorities in Virginia are investigating a severed propane gas line at the home of the brother of a Democrat who supported the overhaul measure. An activist with the "tea party" movement had posted the brother's address on an internet forum, apparently thinking it was the congressman's, and urged angry opponents to pay him a visit. A New York Democrat reported a brick was thrown through a window at her office, and a glass front door was smashed at the office of an Arizona Democrat.



One caller to the office of Bart Stupak, a Democrat who voted for the legislation, said: "I hope you bleed ... [get] cancer and die." A fax to his office carried a picture of a gallows with "Bart (SS) Stupak" on it and a noose attached.



Representative James Clyburn, the highest ranking black lawmaker, said he received a fax with an image of a noose. Others received threatening phone calls.



Representative Phil Hare, an Illinois Democrat, told the Politico news website that several Democrats had told their spouses to move out of their constituencies while the legislators are in Washington.



"If this doesn't get under control in short time, heaven forbid, someone will get hurt," Hare told the paper.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...publican-obama
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#33 Old 03-25-2010, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by MrFalafel View Post

While I can certainly appreciate that many people would embrace a conservative view of politics, why does the Republican party attract so many moonbats?





Nearly a quarter of Republicans believe the Democrat president 'may be the Antichrist', according to a survey.



An even greater number compared him to Hitler.



More than half of the Republicans quizzed by Harris Poll, 57 per cent, believed the president was secretly Muslim, something he has consistently denied.



And 67 per cent of Republicans who responded believed Obama was a socialist, despite his central leanings.






http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worl...tates-sue.html



Its a bizarre poll for a bunny like me to understand Mr Fal



Is it saying more than quarter of the republicans polled think Obama is an Muslim Antichrist Socialist similar to Hitler
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#34 Old 03-25-2010, 07:33 PM
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Does anyone else notice that people are making 'being Muslim' into some horrible thing? I hate religion as much as the next person, but it seems kind of... racist isn't the word I'm looking for... Whatever, you guys know what I mean. People would have a fit if it said "believes he is secretly a Jew/Christian." "WHAT'S WRONG WITH BEING A JEW/CHRISTIAN? HOW DARE YOU ALJ;DLSJFA;LH;SHLAKDJF!?"
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#35 Old 03-25-2010, 07:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Farmrush View Post

I don't know about where they were polled, but if the polling didn't occur in just one specific region then ~2000 is the minimum sample size to rule out statistical fluctuations in the majority of cases (greater than 99%). This can be determined by the equation: q / sqrt(n). As n, the sample size, increases the variability decreases rapidly. At approximately n=2000, the variability is sufficiently small.



How did you arrive at the number 2000?



What is "q" in your formula?
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#36 Old 03-25-2010, 08:03 PM
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Mod Post

Merged with another thread of the same topic
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#37 Old 03-25-2010, 10:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Kellye View Post

^ This. It's like getting your news from The National Enquirer.



I'm so tired of shrill Republicans AND Democrats, it makes my brain hurt. Americans are just ridiculous in general these days. I'm embarrassed to live here.







Fixed that for you.



I don't know the National Enquirer is up for a journalism award for their coverage of the John Edwards mess.... don't get me wrong I was just as suprised to hear it as anyone. Who would have known "Men In Black" was right.



:LOL:
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#38 Old 03-25-2010, 10:28 PM
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Its a bizarre poll for a bunny like me to understand Mr Fal



Is it saying more than quarter of the republicans polled think Obama is an Muslim Antichrist Socialist similar to Hitler



that would be about it.
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#39 Old 03-25-2010, 11:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Farmrush View Post

I don't know about where they were polled, but if the polling didn't occur in just one specific region then ~2000 is the minimum sample size to rule out statistical fluctuations in the majority of cases (greater than 99%). This can be determined by the equation: q / sqrt(n). As n, the sample size, increases the variability decreases rapidly. At approximately n=2000, the variability is sufficiently small.



It's a sham poll. But there's some fun things the press didn't cherry pick out of it. More on that later.



http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/...oratives-.html



Quote:
Whatever profoundly negative things people might think about Barack Obama, a new poll out today demonstrates splendidly how not to measure them.



It nails the negativity, all right; this project purports to tote up responses to a list of harsh criticisms of the president e.g., that hes anti-American, a racist, wants an excuse to take dictatorial powers, is doing many of the things that Hitler did and may be the Antichrist.



Hot words, those. The survey, done by Harris Interactive, apparently was designed to test the theories in a book claiming the lunatic fringe is hijacking America. The purpose seems to have been to see how many people the pollsters could get to agree to pejorative statements about Obama. Quite a few, it turns out but with what I see as a highly manipulative approach to questionnaire design.



Ill lay off the sampling, though this survey was done among people who sign up to click through questionnaires via the Internet in exchange for points redeemable for cash and gifts not a probability sample. Been there before. This time lets just look at what it asked.

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#40 Old 03-25-2010, 11:12 PM
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that would be about it.



As somebody else pointed - Hitler did discourage smoking, built roads, and stepped up diplomacy with Iran.
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#41 Old 03-26-2010, 01:33 AM
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I made a similar thread 3 years ago about polls that show that Democrats that believe in 9/11 conspiracy theories.

https://www.veggieboards.com/boards/s...ats&highlight=

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Rasmussen poll: 35% of Democrats wear Tinfoil hats

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Originally Posted by Fromper View Post

Personally, I think this survey just says that 35% of Democrats, 18% of Independents, and 14% of Republicans will say ANYTHING to insult Bush and make survey results about him sound bad, even if they know they're lying to the survey taker about what they believe. That's a statistic I can believe.

i think that has to be a part of it. people will lie and say something to to make him look bad because they're pissed at him right now frankly.

* This post may contain pork, beef and fingers of undocumented workers. This post was manufactured in a facility that processes peanuts.
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#42 Old 03-26-2010, 07:50 AM
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Yeah, it makes me wonder more about the people who came up with the questions than the people who agreed with them. Who sat around thinking, "You know, it would be interesting to know if any Americans think Obama's the anti-Christ"? Sounds like their polling methodology was just as "off" as their leading questions.



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#43 Old 03-26-2010, 11:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Bonn1997 View Post

How did you arrive at the number 2000?



What is "q" in your formula?



q is the standard deviation. The number 2000 is a rough estimate and can be determined by creating a table of values. It is a rule of thumb for any statistical analysis of a sample (never a population, as this would be complete). As you increase the value n, the standard error becomes very small.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_error_(statistics)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size



Again, though, it is just a rule of thumb. It is not entirely accurate. If you were to flip a coin n times, as n approaches 2000, the number of heads and tales tends increasingly toward evening out at 0.50/0.50. It takes ~2000 flips to significantly reduce the amount of error.



A really good book on this is The Drunkard's Walk, which deals with problems in polling specifically.
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#44 Old 03-26-2010, 03:20 PM
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The article did not provide a link to the alleged Harris Poll.



I don't recall how large a sample relative to the population has to be in order to be valid, but 2.2K as compared to the entire population of Reps seems small.

I wonder about the confidence level too.



But without a link or an explanation of how they got the data, I'm not going to take the "dailymail's" word for it.



It's a professional polling organization, do you really think their statisticians are too stupid to do a power analysis?
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#45 Old 03-26-2010, 03:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Farmrush View Post

q is the standard deviation. The number 2000 is a rough estimate and can be determined by creating a table of values. It is a rule of thumb for any statistical analysis of a sample (never a population, as this would be complete). As you increase the value n, the standard error becomes very small.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_error_(statistics)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size



Again, though, it is just a rule of thumb. It is not entirely accurate. If you were to flip a coin n times, as n approaches 2000, the number of heads and tales tends increasingly toward evening out at 0.50/0.50. It takes ~2000 flips to significantly reduce the amount of error.



A really good book on this is The Drunkard's Walk, which deals with problems in polling specifically.



central limit theorem ftw
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#46 Old 03-26-2010, 03:36 PM
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Yeah, it makes me wonder more about the people who came up with the questions than the people who agreed with them. Who sat around thinking, "You know, it would be interesting to know if any Americans think Obama's the anti-Christ"?



They didn't come up with the question in a vacuum. It's part of the Christian/conservative meme

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/03/04/...he-antichrist/

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#47 Old 03-26-2010, 06:02 PM
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Originally Posted by veggiemeggie View Post

It's a professional polling organization, do you really think their statisticians are too stupid to do a power analysis?



Farm rush confirmed that 2K was sufficient, but we've already discussed other potential issues with the survey

Happiness is not the result of a mathematical equation comparing the good times and bad times someone has had. It is a state of mind.
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#48 Old 03-26-2010, 07:49 PM
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They didn't come up with the question in a vacuum. It's part of the Christian/conservative meme

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/03/04/...he-antichrist/







Actually, it's also the official position of at least one major Protestant denomination that the Pope is the Antichrist - some Christians are prepared to see the Antichrist everywhere.
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#49 Old 03-26-2010, 08:13 PM
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Actually, it's also the official position of at least one major Protestant denomination that the Pope is the Antichrist - some Christians are prepared to see the Antichrist everywhere.



to clarify a little, it's not that Pope is the anti christ, but the whore of Babalyon as descrbed in the book of revelations.... there is also a prediction from a previous pope or bishop (can't remember which right now) that has successfully predicted (based on the description of his writings) the last 11 popes (including this one) and if his prediction is right when this one goes the next one (some question as to whether he will be ordained or not) is supposedly the last pope/leader of the catholic church..... just saying.
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#50 Old 03-26-2010, 08:25 PM
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to clarify a little, it's not that Pope is the anti christ, but the whore of Babalyon as descrbed in the book of revelations.... there is also a prediction from a previous pope or bishop (can't remember which right now) that has successfully predicted (based on the description of his writings) the last 11 popes (including this one) and if his prediction is right when this one goes the next one (some question as to whether he will be ordained or not) is supposedly the last pope/leader of the catholic church..... just saying.



No - the denomination of which I am thinking (The Lutheran Church - Missouri Synod) says he is the Antichrist.



Concerning the historical identity of the Antichrist, we affirm the Lutheran Confessions' identification of the Antichrist with the office of the papacy whose official claims continue to correspond to the Scriptural marks listed above. It is important, however, that we observe the distinction which the Lutheran Confessors made between the office of the pope (papacy) and the individual men who fill that office. The latter could be Christians themselves. We do not presume to judge any person's heart. Also, we acknowledge the possibility that the historical form of the Antichrist could change. Of course, in that case another identified by these marks would rise.



In a footnote, the Commission adds:



To the extent that the papacy continues to claim as official dogma the canons and decrees of the Council of Trent which expressly anathematizes, for instance, the doctrine "that justifying faith is nothing else than trust in divine mercy which remits sins for Christ's sake, or that it is that trust alone by which we are justified," the judgment of the Lutheran confessional writings that the papacy is the Antichrist holds.
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#51 Old 03-26-2010, 08:29 PM
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No - the denomination of which I am thinking says he is the Antichrist.



I understood that, just don't agree with their thinking based on the description in the book of revelations.
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#52 Old 03-26-2010, 10:43 PM
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Originally Posted by MrFalafel View Post

Nearly a quarter of Republicans believe the Democrat president 'may be the Antichrist', according to a survey.



I'm agnostic. I don't believe in the existence of either George Bush or Obama.

"I'm not in this world to live up to your expectations and you're not in this world to live up to mine." Bruce Lee.

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#53 Old 03-26-2010, 10:50 PM
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I'm agnostic. I don't believe in the existence of either George Bush or Obama.



Good answer.

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#54 Old 03-26-2010, 11:12 PM
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It's a professional polling organization, do you really think their statisticians are too stupid to do a power analysis?







You know, if you had actually bothered to read their disclaimer under 'Methodology' at the bottom of the results, you'd know the answer to that one and could've saved yourself some public embarrassment.



http://news.harrisinteractive.com/pr...&Category=1777



Quote:
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.



Not too famliar with inferential statistics or what?
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#55 Old 03-26-2010, 11:41 PM
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No - the denomination of which I am thinking (The Lutheran Church - Missouri Synod) says he is the Antichrist.



That was common theme that ran throughout all of the protestant reformation. Martin Luther in particular, which is probably the main reason the Lutherans still cling to it - more out of a sense of fealty to Luther than anything else.
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#56 Old 03-27-2010, 12:06 AM
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That was common theme that ran throughout all of the protestant reformation. Martin Luther in particular, which is probably the main reason the Lutherans still cling to it - more out of a sense of fealty to Luther than anything else.





I don't know that the ELCA takes that position - I kind of doubt it - the ELCA is much more progressive than the LCMS. (The ELCA has even permitted the ordination of women as far back as I can remember. *gasp* *horror*) I would suspect that the Wisconsin Synod, OTOH, takes the same position as the LCMS, since it's even more conservative than the LCMS. (In other words, not all Lutheras are alike.)
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#57 Old 03-27-2010, 07:45 AM
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it only goes to show how gullible and simple minded religious kooks are attracted to the republican party. i work with one, and he litterally believes this stuff.
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#58 Old 03-27-2010, 01:52 PM
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Given how readily this was swallowed whole, without a shred of critical thinking, I think it just shows how vulnerable people still are to one of the oldest political propaganda tricks in the book.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lie



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...the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation.

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#59 Old 03-30-2010, 05:31 PM
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The internet is the Anti-Christ.

Obama's just a studge.
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#60 Old 03-30-2010, 06:57 PM
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I think this is most excellent. Imagine how disappointed they will be when the anti christ comes out as Sarah Palin.

cry havoc! and let slip the dogs of war.
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