World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011 - VeggieBoards
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#1 Old 08-12-2009, 09:09 PM
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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The world's population is forecast to hit 7 billion in 2011, the vast majority of its growth coming in developing and, in many cases, the poorest nations, a report released Wednesday said.

Riders cram into a train last month in New Delhi, India. India's population is expected to be 1.7 billion by 2050.



Riders cram into a train last month in New Delhi, India. India's population is expected to be 1.7 billion by 2050.



A staggering 97 percent of global growth over the next 40 years will happen in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the Population Reference Bureau's 2009 World Population Data Sheet.



"The great bulk of today's 1.2 billion youth -- nearly 90 percent -- are in developing countries," said Carl Haub, a co-author of the report. Eight in 10 of those youth live in Africa and Asia.



http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science...ion/index.html

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#2 Old 08-13-2009, 12:28 AM
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India's population projection seems a tad high.



I wonder how they are figuring that. Assuming that the 9.2 billion peak population around 2050 is correct, India's going to be responsible for 1/3rd of the global population growth, roughly.
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#3 Old 08-13-2009, 07:55 AM
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From what I've read about this book, scientists have for the past 330 years attempted to calculate in various ways how many people Earth can support, and the median has always been ca. 12 billion.
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#4 Old 08-13-2009, 08:35 AM
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Let's hear it for natural disasters!!! Hip Hip Hoorah!!!

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#5 Old 08-13-2009, 08:43 AM
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I know I will not be contributing to this at all.

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#6 Old 08-13-2009, 08:46 AM
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From what I've read about this book, scientists have for the past 330 years attempted to calculate in various ways how many people Earth can support, and the median has always been ca. 12 billion.





In terms of resources, yes, but what about greenhouse gas emissions?
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#7 Old 08-13-2009, 09:28 AM
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In terms of resources, yes, but what about greenhouse gas emissions?



Yes, or the other new dangers and large-scale critical changes. Others might argue that there will be new improvements or natural rebalancing. At the current rate of population growth, there's, what, 80 years to reach 12G? That doesn't seem like much time, esp. as a sunny-day case.
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#8 Old 08-13-2009, 01:13 PM
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I know I will not be contributing to this at all.



I take it you mean overpopulation versus the thread?

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#9 Old 08-13-2009, 02:26 PM
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This is why I get so angry when I hear about birth control options being denied to young people in the US and to communities in the developing world.

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#10 Old 08-13-2009, 02:32 PM
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This is why I get so angry when I hear about birth control options being denied to young people in the US and to communities in the developing world.



Ironic, ain't it? I went and had a vasectomy done today and my doctor was telling me how his fellow doctors won't do them as they're catholic, yet their wives use birth control?!?! Many urologists have a problem with ages and whatnot for vasectomies, but my great doctor said "bombs away!". As he stated, "it's not my decision."

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#11 Old 08-13-2009, 02:54 PM
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Ironic, ain't it? I went and had a vasectomy done today and my doctor was telling me how his fellow doctors won't do them as they're catholic, yet their wives use birth control?!?! Many urologists have a problem with ages and whatnot for vasectomies, but my great doctor said "bombs away!". As he stated, "it's not my decision."



I agree. I'm interested in surgical sterilization myself, but because I don't have any kids I know it's going to be one hell of a fight if I ever scrape together enough money to go through with it.

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#12 Old 08-13-2009, 02:58 PM
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Yes, or the other new dangers and large-scale critical changes. Others might argue that there will be new improvements or natural rebalancing. At the current rate of population growth, there's, what, 80 years to reach 12G? That doesn't seem like much time, esp. as a sunny-day case.



But the current rate of population growth isn't stable.



It's been declining for years, ever since the late 1960s and early 1970s. In about 1970, the population was growing at about 2% annually.



We're about at half the rate of the population growth of 1970. Now it's about 1.1%
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#13 Old 08-13-2009, 04:29 PM
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But the current rate of population growth isn't stable.



It's been declining for years, ever since the late 1960s and early 1970s. In about 1970, the population was growing at about 2% annually.



We're about at half the rate of the population growth of 1970. Now it's about 1.1%



But what about things that might start occurring from global warming such as stronger hurricanes? With the potential of stronger natural occurrences that would cause greater devastation, that might start turning the tide. Not to mention a more potent/changing form of swine flu.



Why has it been declining?

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#14 Old 08-13-2009, 04:31 PM
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I agree. I'm interested in surgical sterilization myself, but because I don't have any kids I know it's going to be one hell of a fight if I ever scrape together enough money to go through with it.



It might be easier than you think. My doctor said he used to ask patients if they had kids in a just chatting way of talking. He'd get lots of dirty looks, so now he doesn't ask. But, he's probably in the minority. Head on over to Durango, Colorado and you might have a hookup.

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#15 Old 08-13-2009, 04:36 PM
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Oh, didn't realize that, das_nut. Thanks for pointing it out!



Don't have any idea how to predict such things, but it looks like over the past 60 years, there has been quite a bit of turbulence.



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#16 Old 08-13-2009, 08:35 PM
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But what about things that might start occurring from global warming such as stronger hurricanes? With the potential of stronger natural occurrences that would cause greater devastation, that might start turning the tide. Not to mention a more potent/changing form of swine flu.



Why has it been declining?



Prosperity.



People in rich nations don't want to devote their entire lives to being baby making machines.



That's why nations such as Japan are undergoing a population decline. If it wasn't for immigration, western Europe would have the same problem, and eastern Europe is already in population decline.
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#17 Old 08-13-2009, 09:07 PM
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Isn't it possible there's a recurrent cycle or an interval of dramatic change to come?



I mean, this trend is pretty clear overall..







How might you expect the population to behave in the blank portion of the graph? Any predictions?
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#18 Old 08-13-2009, 09:08 PM
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Oh, didn't realize that, das_nut. Thanks for pointing it out!



Don't have any idea how to predict such things, but it looks like over the past 60 years, there has been quite a bit of turbulence.




The problem is the population is still growing....

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#19 Old 08-13-2009, 09:10 PM
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Originally Posted by dwnielsen View Post

Isn't it possible there's a recurrent cycle or an interval of dramatic change to come?



I mean, this trend is pretty clear overall..







How might you expect the population to behave in the blank portion of the graph? Any predictions?

Good read

http://www.biology.iupui.edu/biocour...k4ch39pop.html

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#20 Old 08-13-2009, 10:00 PM
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Thanks, DM!
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