Ludi
February 1st, 2006, 10:26 AM
http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=34340309&brk=1
"Readers say debt most likely trigger for Meltdown '06
By Paul B. Farrell
Last Updated: 1/30/2006 7:42:00 PM
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Recently we asked readers about 20 possible triggers that could cause "Meltdown '06." We hit a nerve, got 445 responses, read all of them and tallied the scores. Only 2% of you are optimists. The others used colorful terms to describe the network of triggers that makes up our unpredictable economy and markets: Perfect storm, tsunami, avalanche, dominoes, house-of-cards. See previous Paul B. Farrell.
One imagined a powder-keg and sparks. Another saw bullets in a machine gun, where a slight miscalculation might push an "apocalyptic lunatic" like Iran's president over the edge; then, as we saw with Katrina and 9/11, nobody at FEMA or DOD will act fast enough to stop a rapid-fire chain reaction from escalating out of control.
The few optimists said the poll was "absurdly paranoid." Others saw a "cyclical bear;" and a "contrarian indicator" of a coming economic boom and bull market. One optimist offered this hope: "When human inadequacy pushes itself to the limit, nature opens new doors, to save us from a worldwide disaster."
Some of the main themes caught us by surprise, some were deeply troubling. The majority of readers did see a network of interrelated triggers, any one of which could ignite the spark, starting an avalanche. Here's a summary of how 445 responses loosely fit into nine general groups:
National debt: 39%. Federal and trade deficits, energy, weak currency
Consumer debt: 19%. Real estate and household debt, low savings
Wild-cards: 13%. Natural disasters, pandemics, tsunamis, terrorists, etc
War & military defense: 11%. Also homeland insecurity and credibility
Miscellaneous triggers: 6%. Hedge fund risks; derivatives; p/e ratios
Social Security & pensions: 4%. Government and corporate retirees
Political corruption: 4%. Pork-barrels; ethics trials; class warfare
Medicare and health care: 2%. Future triggers rather than near-term
Optimists: 2%. They range from hostile to contrarian to the quixotic"
"Readers say debt most likely trigger for Meltdown '06
By Paul B. Farrell
Last Updated: 1/30/2006 7:42:00 PM
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Recently we asked readers about 20 possible triggers that could cause "Meltdown '06." We hit a nerve, got 445 responses, read all of them and tallied the scores. Only 2% of you are optimists. The others used colorful terms to describe the network of triggers that makes up our unpredictable economy and markets: Perfect storm, tsunami, avalanche, dominoes, house-of-cards. See previous Paul B. Farrell.
One imagined a powder-keg and sparks. Another saw bullets in a machine gun, where a slight miscalculation might push an "apocalyptic lunatic" like Iran's president over the edge; then, as we saw with Katrina and 9/11, nobody at FEMA or DOD will act fast enough to stop a rapid-fire chain reaction from escalating out of control.
The few optimists said the poll was "absurdly paranoid." Others saw a "cyclical bear;" and a "contrarian indicator" of a coming economic boom and bull market. One optimist offered this hope: "When human inadequacy pushes itself to the limit, nature opens new doors, to save us from a worldwide disaster."
Some of the main themes caught us by surprise, some were deeply troubling. The majority of readers did see a network of interrelated triggers, any one of which could ignite the spark, starting an avalanche. Here's a summary of how 445 responses loosely fit into nine general groups:
National debt: 39%. Federal and trade deficits, energy, weak currency
Consumer debt: 19%. Real estate and household debt, low savings
Wild-cards: 13%. Natural disasters, pandemics, tsunamis, terrorists, etc
War & military defense: 11%. Also homeland insecurity and credibility
Miscellaneous triggers: 6%. Hedge fund risks; derivatives; p/e ratios
Social Security & pensions: 4%. Government and corporate retirees
Political corruption: 4%. Pork-barrels; ethics trials; class warfare
Medicare and health care: 2%. Future triggers rather than near-term
Optimists: 2%. They range from hostile to contrarian to the quixotic"